Let’s do some math before betting on the Thursday night game. We started showing our work last week.
The Denver Broncos were 3.5-point favorites at the Chicago Bears last week. Any remotely reputable NFL power ranking will have the Bears No. 32 and the Broncos will be No. 31 or close. If you assume 2.5 points for home-field advantage, that means the Broncos would have been favored by about 8.5 points if last week’s game was at Denver. The Bears lost to the Broncos last week, blowing a 28-7 lead.
Now, let’s add the Thursday night variable to the equation.
The Washington Commanders, a much better team than the Broncos who already won a game this season at Denver, is a 6.5-point home favorite at BetMGM over the Bears. That’s two or more points less than a hypothetical Bears at Broncos line last week. The math doesn’t add up. At least it’s better than earlier this week when Washington was favored by just 5.5.
The line really doesn’t make much sense. Justin Fields looked better last week, but that came against a bad Broncos defense. He didn’t look good enough to justify the oddsmakers moving the Bears’ rating in any significant way. Chicago is still a bad team with a confusing offensive plan and a defense that has given up at least 25 points in each game of their 14-game losing streak.
The Commanders are not a great team and not one that should be favored by more than a touchdown against anyone, but nobody would dispute that the Bears are a bad team. It’s not the best Thursday night matchup for sure, but the math tells you that Washington is probably the better side for betting purposes.
Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields and his team are looking for their first win this season. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Here’s the rest of the sports betting slate for Thursday:
Props for Thursday night
Unfortunately for some of my fantasy teams, Jahan Dotson is off to a slow start this season. He hasn’t had more than 40 yards in a game this season. I’ll take the under on…