A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football categories doesn’t always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.
Yes … The Numbers Do Lie.
Keaton Mitchell’s 5.8 touches per game are a lie
Mitchell has somehow been close to a top-30 RB in fantasy points per game this season despite ranking 75th in total touches. He has the potential to be a top-15 fantasy RB down the stretch in a bigger role. Mitchell led Baltimore’s backfield in snaps, routes, carries and yards during the Ravens’ last game and could see the rookie bump following the team’s bye. His snap rate has increased every game he’s played throughout the year, while Gus Edwards’ fell to 26% in Week 12. Mitchell has the same number of breakaway runs (four) this season as Josh Jacobs on 191 fewer carries.
The diminutive back isn’t going to become a workhorse (and his YPC is sure to regress), and Edwards remains the favorite at the goal-line, but Mitchell is an explosive runner who can be a difference maker given 15 touches or so. The Ravens are touchdown home favorites against the Rams this week, so Mitchell’s run as this year’s “fantasy league-winner” starts Sunday.
Justin Fields being fantasy’s QB16 is a lie
Fields is the No. 21 QB overall and No. 16 in fantasy points per game, which hasn’t lived up to his ADP. He hasn’t had a monster fantasy game since Week 5, but that should change Sunday. Fields’ thumb should be healthier following Chicago’s bye, and his 30 rush attempts over his previous two games reveal a ton of fantasy upside. Detroit’s pass defense has been getting destroyed lately, and they’ve especially struggled against mobile quarterbacks. Fields has benefitted from the addition of DJ Moore this season, and the two should find success against a Lions secondary allowing the fifth-most passing touchdowns this season.
Fields has shown improvement as a passer…