NYJ Trades S J.Adams to SEA for the World
25 Jul 2020, 04:19pm
Pete Carroll and John Schneider finally found a replacement for Kam Chancellor, but my goodness they gave up a lot to get him.
Jets deal Jamal Adams and 4th-round pick in 2022
Seattle, in exchange for Bradley McDougald (safety), 1st-round pick in 2021, 3rd-round pick in 2021, and 1st-round pick in 2022, source tells ESPN.
Deal is pending physicals.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) July 25, 2020
Jamal Adams was the sixth overall pick in 2017. The Jets had already picked up the fifth-year option on his rookie deal, which expires in 2021, for a total of $13.5 million over the next two seasons. However, he has made it clear he wants to sign an extension as soon as possible, and his sky-high salary demands are part of the reason he was available in the first place.
Earlier this week, we noted that Adams was among the league leaders in defeats at his position. That includes 6.0 sacks, two more than anyone in Seattle had in 2019. Maybe they’re going to play him at edge rusher.
Uh, that’s more than the Bears traded for Khalil Mack. That deal has not aged well, even with Mack basically fulfilling every on-field expectation.
Adams now has near-infinite leverage to become the highest-paid safety in the game, and while that will amount to a lot less money than what the Bears paid Mack as an edge rusher, the cap is about to go down. Seahawks are all-in on 2020. Hope the season happens…
Crazy that the Seahawks got Adams for Bradley McDougald and a third round pick!
I can’t wait for Scramble to get to the western divisions in our Over/Unders, because the NFC West is going to be ~crazy~.
Wow, what a haul. Big win for the Jets.
NYJ was going to get something like: 2 years of Adams for $13.5M and then a 2023 3rd rd compensatory pick. Instead they get something like: lateish 1st round picks in 2021 & 2022, plus 1 year of Bradley McDougald for $4.1M, plus a mid-round pick swap which is worth about as much as that compensatory pick. Big win.
SEA gives up a bit more than 2 first round picks for 2 years of Adams for $13.5M, plus the opportunity to sign him to a big money contract extension.
He instantly improves their entire defense, even the pass rush improves due to the lock down secondary. Could be seeing the next great secondary.
Also, the price isn’t actually that high. Seattle always picks in the mid 20’s on up. You can’t trade two mid 20 picks for a 6th round pick, which is what Adams was. And a 6th round pick is a crap shoot anyways. Adams is a verified weapon. Great deal for both teams.
It’s a bold move and I agree that they could be very, very good on defense – especially if they can convince Clowney to return on a 1 or 2 year deal.
The price here is insane, though. Two firsts and a third (minus the 4th they get back), plus they are going to have to pay Adams a top-of-the-market deal. True that Seattle can be reasonably confident that they’ll “only” pick in the 20s, but those picks are still extremely valuable for building your roster – and only moreso when your QB is going to count $32/37/39 million against the cap the next 3 seasons. It’s like they’re tripling down on the mistakes they made with Percy Harvin and Jimmy Graham, but I guess I at least like how this looks on the field a lot more.
There are so many unexplored angles here beyond the one’s you mentioned that makes this a decidedly awful move. My first thought is – Schneider should not be in charge of trades. Ever. Not a single one of his first rounders for player X has worked in the way they hoped.
The first points you made are spot on. He’s going to cost a lot and you pair that with Wilson and it puts a premium on low cost, high performing talent. We can debate how likely it is to nab a talented player with late first round picks, but they are worth something and even late first rounders have tremendous upside potential.
There’s also tremendous downside risk to having a top heavy roster – namely – injuries start to become absolutely devastating. Adams may in fact be a game wrecker, but losing him to a thin roster has deep implications.
I would also like to question the assumption about how much intrinsic value Adams will bring. We are nowhere close to isolating all of the ripple effects safeties bring. Its fun and nice to draw up all of the interesting blitz and coverage concepts you can do with a player like that, but that requires a solid defensive foundation in the first place. You don’t run fancy blitz schemes when the rest of your secondary is awful and or your defensive line is not competent enough to get even moderate pass rush(see the RAP article).
And then there’s the fact that he may not even work out to be the player he was in NY. This is something people seem to be taking for granted – that he will just be the same guy anywhere. Um…that’s not a certainty. I wouldn’t be surprised in fact if he’s not the same effective player he was in NY. See all of the other trades Seattle made.
Bottom line – Adams is a fantastic player but the return is simply too much and the downside risk too severe to make it worth it.
And while there’s still a lot of uncertainty, we now know that the cap may go down by $23 million next season! If everything doesn’t come together just right, they are really, really going to miss those two first round picks…
I saw your name and knew your post was going to be exactly what it turned out to be.
Not a better secondary in the NFL. This is a team that had the ref correctly called DPI, would have swept SF for the division title and probably gone on to the Super Bowl. They were that close.
Now they’re over the top.
First, I don’t understand why you think I am some Seahawks hater; considering I don’t root for any NFC team.
And to your point about SEA winning the division – if the 49ers make the FG in OT(on a poorly spotted ball on 3rd down); Seattle’s week 17 game doesn’t matter.
I also find your comment about likely going to the SB strange. A victory would not have earned them a first round bye – that would have gone to NO and GB. And since Seattle already lost to the Packers on the road, why would we assume they would win had they gone as a division winner?
In any case, I was already leaning Seattle for the division win next year and this makes them the favorite in my eyes. My issues that I listed above remain even if I think they are the NFC West favorite.
Also also, its not clear to me that the current Seahawks defensive backfield is better than the Ravens.
It’s Jamal Adams. As a now happy Jets fan, I still remember his correct name. Hopefully you will too, because he probably will work out great for Seattle, as long as they use him correctly and he doesn’t get hurt. I’m still happy that Douglas got the overpay. I’ll be bummed in a year or two when the idiot who is embarrassing himself in Great Britain comes back and fires Douglas along with Gase just because he can. No, I’ll stop being a Jets fan, so I’m going to start rooting more for the Seahawks (I live in the Pacific Northwest) now, ahead of schedule. But still, you shouldn’t scold another poster with valid points when you can’t even name your favorite team’s great acquisition.
I’m pretty stoked. I’ve also been a Jets fan since the days of Namath. Always hoping they unseat NE. As for Slot, whether he realizes it or not, but going back years and years as long as I can remember he’s always been negative about the Seahawks.
Do you have examples? As far as I can tell the only one that comes to mind is my disagreement that Russell Wilson is as good as Patrick Mahomes or has ever put together a season to suggest he’s some top 10 level all time QB.
I also thought about it long and hard and decided I don’t care. As a Seahawks fan, I have watched us swing and miss on these type of splash trades over Carroll’s term, but this one lands in his wheelhouse. He works magic with the defensive backfield and gets more out of players there than most would anticipate. Getting Jamal at this young of an age has me feeling like we may have the next Kenny Easley / Kam Chancellor, with the upside of being better than both. Some may say that still isn’t worth it, and they would have a point. I’m at peace with it because it helps us now when it matters while Russ is hitting his prime. The salary cap is dropping sure, but Jamal is still on his rookie deal and the Seahawks can make use of his 5th year option when structuring his new deal. That will get them to a better place when the NFL returns to “normal” along with the ever increasing cap.
The value of those draft picks is also likely to be diminished when you consider what is happening in the NCAA this year. You would still rather have them than not, but I can sleep well at night with a possible roster that Includes Russell, Bobby, Jamal, Clowney, Lockett, DK and …….AB??
What would make this a win for Seattle is if they use Adams the way Gregg Williams did in the middle of last season: as an edge rusher. Adams is capable of getting 8-10 sacks from the safety position. But soon after he went on his mid-season rampage last year, Adams got banged up and missed one and a half games, so this strategy has some risk to it as well.
Your point about the NCAA is spot on…who knows what a player coming out of college will be worth next year, with a possibly incomplete, likely low competition, perhaps scrubbed college football season…
I thought draft picks were super valuable since the intro of the rookie cap because it enables teams to get great players on the cheap. So trading two 1st round picks for anyone outside of a future HoFer (e.g. Khalil Mack trade) is considered a bad move? (See also Laremy Tunsil). Trading a single 1st round pick for Brandon Cooks is ok.
Main question … does the “1st round picks are valuable for getting greatness cheap” only applies to QBs and maybe OTs / edge rushers?
Right, all first round picks are valuable because they’re your best shot at acquiring a starting-caliber talent for cheap for 4-5 seasons. QB, OT and edge rusher probably give you the biggest competitive advantage if you hit on those picks, because those are the positions you would have to pay most for to acquire a player in free agency (or to extend your own player in the future), but you still get a premium at any position.
The reason trading first round picks (even one, but especially two) for veterans is less-than-ideal for building your roster is not just because you’re losing out on the opportunity to add to your roster with those picks, but also because you’re planning to commit top-of-the-market money to the player you’re trading for, which then makes it more difficult to add to the roster in free agency. Seattle will probably be more-or-less capped out once they extend Adams.
I don’t know when the standard changed that established stars are now worth multiple first-round picks. When the Colts acquired DeForest Buckner for a first-rounder, that was already verging on a bit of an over pay but as a Colts fan I had to talk myself into liking it overall. As far as I can tell no one around here liked the Jeremy tunsil trade.
When you zoom out, it’s easy to talk yourself into thinking that late first-round picks have little value. After all they could easily turn into Alec ogletree or Deone Buchanan. They could also turn into much worse. But that paints a very incomplete picture. Not only are they assets you can use to trade up or down, but hitting on a good player or a great one becomes the second most valuable asset in the entire sport.
Gase has a long history now of feuding with his potential star players and then shipping him out. It’s hard to win without players, but I guess they have “future” players in play here. If Gase is still around to draft in those years is anyone’s guess.