GREEN BAY – The odds were not in the Packers’ favor Monday night after Matt Prater made his fifth and final field goal from 54 yards in the fourth quarter of Green Bay’s eventual 23-22 win over the Detroit Lions.
And then Allen Lazard came into the picture.
According to numberFire’s win probability model, which takes into account team strength, score, time left and possession, the Packers’ chances of winning hovered around 15% when the Lions’ veteran kicker extended Detroit’s lead to 22-13 with 12 minutes, 17 seconds remaining.
The Packers’ win probability spiked to 41.09% percent thanks to Lazard’s 35-yard touchdown cutting the deficit to two points and Green Bay’s defense forcing the Lions to put with 6 minutes, 53 seconds remaining.
On the 14-play, 77-yard game-winning series that culminated with Mason Crosby’s 23-yard field goal, Green Bay’s odds grew to 45.83% with Lazard’s 12-yard catch on second-and-8 at the Green Bay 23 and 74.36% after his 15-yard reception on second-and-8 at the Detroit 37.