Risky Business: Week 11
1 min read
Risky Business: Week 11
Aaron Schatz
23 Nov 2020, 11:45am
From our sister company, EdjSports: The cost of Aaron Rodgers’ decisions to spike the ball twice on his final fourth-quarter drive, and the value of having the option to run an additional play in the series.
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2020/risky-business-week-11
This analysis seems to be working from the assumption that the Packers spiked the ball when they could have chosen to run a play starting from the same time on the game clock. I don’t believe that’s true. To run a first down play would require time to call the play, get everyone in position, assign protections, etc. I believe the proper comparison would be 2nd and 10 after the spike versus 1st and 10 some time later (5-10 secs, maybe?). It still may be sub-optimal, but the comparison would be more meaningful.