Risky Business: Week 11
23 Nov 2020, 11:45am
From our sister company, EdjSports: The cost of Aaron Rodgers’ decisions to spike the ball twice on his final fourth-quarter drive, and the value of having the option to run an additional play in the series.
This analysis seems to be working from the assumption that the Packers spiked the ball when they could have chosen to run a play starting from the same time on the game clock. I don’t believe that’s true. To run a first down play would require time to call the play, get everyone in position, assign protections, etc. I believe the proper comparison would be 2nd and 10 after the spike versus 1st and 10 some time later (5-10 secs, maybe?). It still may be sub-optimal, but the comparison would be more meaningful.