May 29, 2022

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Saturday Wild-Card Open Discussion

16 min read
Saturday Wild-Card Open Discussion



Saturday Wild-Card Open Discussion
Vincent Verhei
15 Jan 2022, 02:27pm

New England Patriots ER Deatrich Wise Jr.

The playoffs kick off with Las Vegas (10-7) at Cincinnati (10-7), then New England (10-7) visits Buffalo (11-6) in the night game. Use this thread to discuss them both.

1
If I were to channel my…

If I were to channel my inner RJ, I would say Raiders all the wsy. 

But I do think it will be close and fun.

2
Wild-Card

CIN-27 LV-17 

BUF-30 NE-20

 

3
I see the Bengals coming out…

I see the Bengals coming out fired up. First playoffs since 2015 doncha know.

I do think it’ll lead to some early fireworks, with Burrow and company putting up 150 yards in the first quarter. I don’t think they’ll come away with more than a couple FGs though.

The second quarter will probably get each team a td, since the Raiders aren’t just going to roll over. I think a 13-10 halftime score sounds right.

I’m expecting the Bengals to pull away in the 3rd quarter and finish it 34-17, which is too bad because the Raiders don’t deserve to be remembered as quite that outclassed.

4
It’s win or go home for all…

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5
Raiders have the worst red…

Raiders have the worst red zone defense ever, allowing a td on 81% of opponent possessions, so of course the bengals score a td. 

6
But then the rare stop followed by awful ST play

Bengals settle for FG, I believe stat is Raiders worst red zone defense in 30 years.

Follow up with awful mistake on special teams on kick near sideline, player does not establish himself out of bounds and goes out at 2, instead of getting ball at 40.

Quarters ends with huge 3 rd down play to start quarter 2.

EDIT:  Red zone defense not a reliable stat, Raiders could be blown away, but two RZ stops for FG’s and its only 13-3 despite total Bengal domination.

7
Weird.  LV had three…

Weird.  LV had three consecutive snaps inside their own 5 and didn’t call a QB sneak on any of them.  Of course, the second of those was a false start, which they might have avoided if they weren’t going the hyper-aggressive route of trying to run a draw play.

Edit: and on third down Carr gets sacked on his half-yard line and somewhere Joe Judge is yelling “See! I told you!!”

8
Carr push

Sure looked like Chase pushed off on that long reception. (I have no rooting interest, just enjoying watching a game)

9
On a die roll, I’d say that…

In reply to by young curmudgeon

On a die roll, I’d say that one gets called OPI on a 1 or a 2 and gets ignored on a 3 through 6.  Modify the roll by between -1 and +1 based on the tendencies of that particular official.

10
First big 4th-and-1…

First big 4th-and-1 situation and CIN goes for it at the LV 31.

I hate the play call – slow developing pitch end around to Chase which would be blown up if any of about 5 defenders beats his block – but all the blockers do their job and they convert.

11
I just replayed the TD

Clearly a whistle blew when ball was in the air.  
 

EDIT:  Now the NBC crew agrees that should not have been a TD

14
Tough to coach players to…

Tough to coach players to stop on the whistle if you’re going to allow scores to count when they’re made after the whistle blew.  I’m not 100% certain that the DB on coverage would have been able to break up the pass if the whistle doesn’t blow, but it’s clear he stops trying to make a play when the whistle sounds, as does the DB coming in the other direction (who also likely wouldn’t have been able to break it up, but pulls up and doesn’t even try).

EDIT: watched it again from a different angle and there’s no way the DB coming from the other direction is close enough to lay a hit on the receiver, he’s way too far away.  Also, the DB in coverage is definitely beat, too, so I don’t think the whistle affected anything and it would have been a TD regardless.  It’s still a really dangerous precedent for the league to set, though, allowing a play to continue after a clear whistle on the field.

19
your observation is wrong

The ball was inches away from the receiver’s hands when the whistle blew. It is impossible for a human being to react that fast– in fact, even if it was 5 feet away, it likely would have been impossible for the defender to react– and he was more than an arms length away anyway…

15
Just disappointing

The whistle almost certainly blew (very late) because a ref thought the qb was out of bounds.  Which was clearly not the case 

 

So because of an official error in judgment the official then blows the whistle and the offense would be penalized due to compounding officiating errors.  
 

I know Raiders fans are likely upset.  But I am ok with the outcome.  And yes I know why the rule is in place.  

12
SATURDAY THREAD?

Praise the heavens

Also Bengals rested last week but doesn’t look like rust. Ooops, throw momentum out the window

13
Big end of H1 TD drive by LV…

Big end of H1 TD drive by LV to make this a one score game going into half (unless CIN does something with the 13 seconds left on the clock).

16
Stupidity

Why are these clowns (former coaches/former officials) so stupid?  “Officials can’t ignore rules”– Dungy said.  sure they can when the whistle blew a millisecond before the ball hit the receiver’s hands. At the point when no one could possibly have reacted in time– and of course the nearest defender wasn’t even arms length away. That “call” if enforced would have been one of the worst in the history of the league.

17
NBC broadcast

is dreadful.  Tirico seems confused on what is happening play to play.  Love Brees but he is super dull.  All the camera work seems a step slow.  I would expect this from the fourth string ESPN crew covering a nothing college bowl game.  Not these guys.  Geez 

18
Raiders survive

The turnover letting CIN get ball at 15 and only get a FG and the terrible ST gaffe leading to a punt from the 1 only leading to a FG. along with Raiders end of half TD with their extra first half possession from receiving opening kickoff, thats a lot to have happen to save this game and only be down 20-13 at half.

20
agreed

In reply to by jheidelberg

one stop and/or one TO and Raiders are really in this. Of course they may not get either

22
Bengals defense gets a little better

And you’re looking at a Rodgers-like era of 8-10 straight years of playoffs/contention  Burrow is that good

Which is why I think Mayfield is gone in CLEV– they can’t afford to have an average (At best) QB in that division

24
Let’s be honest about that early whistle

Boyd was wide open, the ball was already on its way past the defender, and the play should have been a touchdown. If the worst thing the refs do in this game is blow a bad whistle a fraction of a second before a wide-open touchdown that then stands, this is a win for the NFL. 

25
OK timeout LV

Where was the whistle stopping that play?

26
No delay of game call. Now a…

No delay of game call. Now a late review. These officials are really trying to blow this game. 

35
Stupid time out

Five yard penalty wouldn’t hinder the field goal. Save the time out, let the clock expire, move back five yards, and get the same three points. 

36
The WORST play in football

Bengals should be forced to forfeit. Cowards. 

And it was leaning go for it. But it was a toss up so just go with whatever and don’t waste the timeout. 

38
Bengals coverage downfield

Must be great as Carr has forever and keeps having to check down 

42
Man…

Teams still spiking in these situations?

Just a waste of a down that you very well might need.

Welp…guess I wanted Cincy to win anyway. 

43
4th and goal now..game on…

4th and goal now..game on the line

 

edit: didn’t get it! Bengals get first playoff win since 1990!

44
Phew.

Congrats Bengals

 

49
Ended the game with a lot of…

Ended the game with a lot of time left on the clock. It’s one thing if you are going to mix in a run or throw short or something but they were going for the end zone every time, didn’t need the extra time.

50
Yep

Teams really overestimate their play calling in that situation. As was shown. Just gives the defense time for their “perfect” play too. Try to catch them on their heels. 

87
Everyone remembers the…

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

Everyone remembers the Marino fake spike for a reason.  Do not understand why teams have stopped doing it.

46
Oohhh that roughing the…

Oohhh that roughing the passer call on the final drive of the game looked brutal based on the replay angles shown in TV.  Wonder if there was anything there from other angles?

Bit of a sloppy game, lots of FGs, a few too many bad officiating moments … and still a great finish to the game and great start to wildcard weekend.  

48
WHY THE STUPIDITY??

Cowher and Esiason acting as if this was some horrible call— NONE OF THEM BOTHERING TO POINT OUT THE BALL WAS ABOUT THREE INCHES FROM THE RECEIVER’S HANDS WHEN THE WHISTLE BLEW   THEY ARE IDIOTS!!!

89
Yep

Imagine if an inadvertent (and bad) whistle had taken away a touchdown that was about two or three feet from the open receiver. 

51
Wow!

Thought that was a throwaway.  

52
MVP-candidate Josh Allen…

MVP-candidate Josh Allen shows up on the first Bills’ drive, aided by Judon and Hightower whiffs on two big Allen runs and capped by a beautiful touch pass to the back corner of the end zone that would have doubled as a throw away if not for the great catch by the TE.

53
Josh Allen

OMFG WTH

63
IKR! 

In reply to by Tutenkharnage

IKR! 

56
Micah Hyde!!
Picks Agholor’s…

Micah Hyde!!

Picks Agholor’s pocket and what looked like a sure NE tying TD becomes BUF ball.

58
Annnnnnnnnddd….. That’s…

Annnnnnnnnddd….. That’s all she wrote.  Pats actively make things easier for Buffalo when the Bills weren’t even on schedule.  Hard to imagine things turning out better when Buffalo’s plays go as planned.  

40-13 here we come. 

59
McDaniels has clearly done his homework

Frazier and McDermott will have to make some adjustments. Defensive line also needs to seal the deal once they get to Jones. Offense is clicking so far, though. 

62
New England doesn’t want to turn this into a track meet

But if they come up empty on Buffalo’s next drive, they might not have much choice. It’s becoming clear that the Patriots still have no answers on that side of the ball, because they still have no answers for Josh Allen. 

64
27/Jackson

playing for NE stuns me given his weak 8ss effort to tackle the back on that play to get inside the 5.  

65
New England is close to being toast

They have played a mix of man-to-man and some against Buffalo, and it hasn’t mattered at all. Any idea when the Pats last got a sack, got a turnover, or forced a punt against the Bills? Because I think it’s going on seven quarters now. 
 

Edit: I looked it up. As Buffalo takes over with 3:33 left in the second, the Patriots haven’t sacked Allen in a game and a half, haven’t forced a punt in nearly eight full quarters, and haven’t forced a turnover since Matt Breida’s fumble in the first quarter of the MNF game. 

66
BUF is winning the line…

BUF is winning the line battle on both sides of the ball.  That’ll beat most teams, but especially NE whose wins this season have mostly come from doing the same.

74
Bills get to 300 yards! 27-0…

Bills get to 300 yards! 27-0! As TMQ would say, “I wrote game over in my notebook”

75
Belichick

I looked up his worst playoff loss as Patriots coach earlier today and then told some friends that with Buffalo’s game plan and New England’s injuries, I felt the 19-point margin was in play. I’ll admit that I didn’t think they’d clear it with 23 minutes and blast well past it by halftime. By the end of the night, Josh Allen will own the biggest regular-season win against Belichick and should own the biggest playoff win against him as well. 

77
Quarterbacks

The lesson, as always: Never bring a Mac to a Josh fight. 

83
And….

Sanders TD!  Beautiful pass. Josh Allen is on fire. 

82
OMG! 

OMG! 

85
If the Bills can play like…

If the Bills can play like this in the weeks to come, look out!

*not that beating the Pats are a yardstick of greatness*

86
The Bills haven’t just slain the dragon

They’ve beheaded it, chopped it up, and grilled it, and now they’re getting ready to serve dragon burgers to all the Pats fans out there. Oh, and Boston media, too. Those guys said they wanted the bull; hope they’re enjoying the horns!

88
Fun isn’t something one…

Fun isn’t something one considers when trying to balance the NFL, but this…. this does put a smile on my face.

93
Memetastic

I want someone to edit this video clip, put Josh’s face on Vision’s, change “Age of Ultron” to “Age of Allen,” and put Belichick’s face on Thanos:

94
With a 37-point lead and…

With a 37-point lead and under nine minutes to go, the Bills starters should be on the sideline. Every play they’re out there in the cold is just another opportunity to get hurt.

97
Belichick

Still waiting for that super-secret defensive game plan he’s gonna unveil to stop 17. Maybe he’s saving it for next year. 

98
The big man touchdown just…

The big man touchdown just makes all this even better and it was pretty great already.

I think part of why this blowout is so good is that NE isn’t playing horribly. It’s because Buffalo is playing so good it doesn’t matter. I enjoy well executed football a lot more than sloppy and a lot of blowouts are because one team is just executing like crap. NE looks like they are having an average game execution wise. Buffalo is just on another level tonight.

100
After that big man touchdown…

After that big man touchdown I feel like I was given an entire chocolate cake for my birthday and decided to eat all of it; it was great, but I’m bloated on sweets and butter now

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/open-discussion/2022/saturday-wild-card-open-discussion