May 8, 2021

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Week 16 Quick Reads | Football Outsiders

19 min read
Week 16 Quick Reads | Football Outsiders


Following a six-game losing streak that dropped them to 5-7, the Chicago Bears have won three games in a row and now control their own postseason destiny: if they beat the Green Bay Packers at home on Sunday, they’re in the playoffs. The key to Chicago’s turnaround has been Mitchell Trubisky. In his last four games (including a strong performance in a 34-30 loss to Detroit), Trubisky has completed 72% of his passes for an 8.1-yard average with seven touchdowns, seven sacks, and two interceptions. The Bears are now 6-2 in when they start Trubisky, who is playing as well as he ever has — his 7.8% DVOA over the past month is higher than the 3.6% mark he posted in 2018, the best season of his career.

What’s notable about Trubisky’s improvement is how he has been more aggressive and taken more risks this season. His interception rate of 2.7% is actually up from his 2019 rate of 1.9%, but he’s averaging a full yard more per pass (7.1, up from 6.1) and is throwing way more touchdowns (6.3% of his passes have produced six points this year, nearly double his 3.3% rate last season).

That radical change in Trubisky’s numbers really shows up when we look at QB Styles for 2020. I introduced QB Styles in Week 2 of 2019 and revisited them in Week 16 that same year. You can read those articles (and this Twitter thread) for details on the process, but the quick and dirty explanation is that I calculate three statistics for each quarterback:

  • sacks per dropback;
  • interceptions per dropback;
  • a modified version of yards per pass attempt, awarding a 20-yard bonus for passing touchdowns and subtracting interceptions from pass attempts so they are not counted twice.

I then chart those three statistics into a graph that looks like this:

Image 1

And then find the average position for each quarterback on those three lines. This leaves all quarterbacks falling into one of three categories:

  • Gunslingers (quarterbacks who throw a lot of interceptions) are marked in green and found at the top of the graph;
  • Game Managers (quarterbacks who avoid sacks and interceptions but fail to produce yards and touchdowns) are marked in red and found in the lower right;
  • and Sack-Takers (self-explanatory) are marked in blue and found in the lower left.

I charted results for 39 quarterbacks this year, which is a lot. That includes the 36 quarterbacks with at least 200 passes, plus three more (San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo, Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts, and New Orleans’ Taysom Hill) who have thrown at least 100 passes and could theoretically be starting somewhere in 2021.

Here are the results (click to open a larger image in a new window):

Image 2

Remember that this is a measurement of each quarterback’s playing style, not his quality. Near the middle of the graph, MVP favorite Aaron Rodgers comes very close to historically awful Carson Wentz, while DYAR-leader Patrick Mahomes is perfectly overlapped with fringe starter Teddy Bridgewater. That doesn’t mean those four quarterbacks are equal to each other, just that each is consistently weak or strong in all categories across the board. To help distinguish the good quarterbacks from the bad, I have adjusted the size of each quarterback’s marker — good quarterbacks (as measured by Pro Football Reference’s ANY/A metric) have large dots, while bad quarterbacks have small dots.

In 2019, Trubisky was solidly in the lower right portion of this graph, one of the league’s preeminent Game Managers. In 2020, with his new-found boom-or-bust results, he’s right smack dab in the middle of the Gunslingers category. No quarterback who qualified for both seasons saw a bigger change in style between this year and last. Other quarterbacks who saw major shifts include:

Deshaun Watson, HOU: Watson provides a good example about how QB Styles show the relationship between various statistics and not just the statistics themselves. In 2019, he was technically a Game Manager, but was pretty much dead-center in the graph. In 2020, he was the standout Sack-Taker in the game, at least among full-time starters (sorry, Taysom Hill). That sounds like a guy who took a lot more sacks this year, but Watson’s sack rate was literally unchanged — it was 8.2% in 2019, and it’s 8.2% again in 2020. So what happened? Watson’s yards per attempt, already pretty good at 7.8, shot up to a league-leading 8.8. His touchdown rate went up a bit too, and those combined to move him up and left from the center. Watson also cut his interception rate in half, from 2.4% to 1.2%, which then pushed him straight down. So even though Watson isn’t taking any more sacks than he used to, he has improved so much in other areas that his pocket presence (and Houston’s pass protection) were by far his biggest weakness this season.

Tom Brady, TB: One year ago at this time, Brady was dinking-and-dunking for an anemic offense that was carried by a dominant defense to a postseason berth, where they were promptly upset at home. At age 42, Brady and his arm looked washed up. Well … funny story. It turns out that if you take Brady away from Julian Edelman, Phillip Dorsett, and Mohamed Sanu and give him Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Rob Gronkowski instead, he plays a whole hell of a lot differently. Brady has seen major boosts in both yards per pass (from 6.8 to 7.8) and touchdown rate (3.9% to 6.3% — the latter would be his best since 2016) and cut back on sacks (3.4%, down from 4.2%). His interception rate has climbed from 1.3% to 1.9%, but the Bucs have been more than happy to live with that. Brady was the top Game Manager in the league last year, but he has been more of a Gunslinger this season. Really, though, it’s his ability to avoid sacks that has been, and remains, his greatest asset.

Kirk Cousins, MIN: With Brady, there are obvious reasons we would expect change. Not so with Cousins — he didn’t switch teams and saw little change in personnel, with rookie Justin Jefferson taking over for Stefon Diggs at wide receiver. Whatever the reason, though, Cousins has produced a lot of splash plays this year, both good and bad. His touchdown rate is up to a career-best 6.7%, but his interception rate of 2.7% is his highest since 2014, and his sack rate of 7.0% is his highest since 2017. He is averaging 8.1 yards per pass, just like last year, but all those touchdowns, sacks, and turnovers have taken a Game Manager and turned him into the NFL’s top anti-Game Manager, the player furthest to the upper left (if you ignore the part-timer Garoppolo).

Carson Wentz, PHI: We have covered Wentz extensively in this space this year, as many other analysts have done in many other spaces. The TL;DR version: Wentz declined in virtually every way, but especially in making big mistakes. He still leads the league with 50 sacks taken, and will probably finish first in that category despite being benched for a quarter of the season. (Watson and Russell Wilson are tied for second with 45 each.) He’s also tied with Drew Lock with a league-high 15 interceptions. All those mistakes have turned Wentz from an extreme Game Manager into something of a Sack-Taker, though he’s really a centrist — which, in his case, means he sucks at everything.

It’s interesting that all five of the quarterbacks who had the biggest changes in style in 2020 had been Game Managers in 2019. It appears that it’s difficult game-changing plays forever, and eventually a flurry of sacks, interceptions, or touchdowns (or all of the above) are inevitable.

A few other notes on this chart:

  • If you could combine Jimmy Garoppolo and Nick Mullens into one uber-49ers QB, you would have the top Gunslinger in the land … which is strange for an offense built around short passes with lots of YAC.
     
  • The top anti-Gunslinger is a rookie, Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa. His closest rival in this category is another rookie who was also his rival when they both played college football in the SEC: Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow. They’re joined in the bottom-center of the chart by Daniel Jones and Gardner Minshew, a pair of second-year players. Perhaps this is a trend among younger quarterbacks — they’re so wary of turning the ball over that they fail to take advantage of available plays downfield.
     
  • We already mentioned Watson as the league’s top Sack-Taker; his counterpart is Denver’s Drew Lock. As previously noted, Lock is tied for the league lead in interceptions, but he’s not in the top 30 in sacks taken. If he throws at least two interceptions against the Raiders, he’ll be the first qualifying quarterback with as many interceptions as sacks since Matt Barkley had 14 interceptions and six sacks with the Bears in 2016. (This is not always a bad thing — Peyton Manning did it five times.)
     
  • There’s no obvious answer for the league’s top Game Manager this year — there’s a big empty pocket in the lower right of our chart. By default, we’ll go with Ben Roethlisberger, who is averaging only 6.3 yards per throw. He’s ranging up towards Gunslinger territory, however, because he has struggled far more with interceptions (10, tied for 10th) than with sacks (13, 35th).

 


 

Quarterbacks

Rk

Player

Team

CP/AT

Yds

TD

INT

Sacks

Total
DYAR

Pass
DYAR

Rush
DYAR

Opp

1.

Tom Brady TB

22/27

348

4

0

1

186

186

0

DET

Brady finishes in first place despite losing a league-high 56 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He was successful on 75% of his dropbacks. That’s the most by any quarterback in any game this year, but he had a lot of competition — Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Brandon Allen were all over 70% too. He was the league’s best passer inside the opponents’ 40 (9-of-10 for 133 yards and four touchdowns) and on throws down the middle (9-of-11 for 153 yards; all nine of thows completions picked up first downs, including a touchdown).

2.

Josh Allen BUF

27/36

320

4

0

0

182

170

12

NE

3.

Brandon Allen CIN

29/37

371

2

0

0

169

174

-5

HOU

Brady Allen finishes in first third place despite losing a league-high 56 DYAR 52 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He was the league’s best passer on throws to his left, completing all 14 of his passes for 122 yards and two touchdowns; a 15th throw picked up 7 yards on a DPI. The Texans tied this game at 17-all midway through the third quarter; from that point to the end of the game, Allen went 11-of-13 for 161 yards and a touchdown.

4.

Ben Roethlisberger PIT

34/49

342

3

0

1

158

158

0

IND

Roethlisberger had the league’s best numbers on passes to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage (10-of-11 for 56 yards and a touchdown), and on deep balls that traveled 16-plus yards downfield (5-of-8 for 135 yards and two touchdowns, plus two DPIs for 45 more yards). He also threw for a league-high 21 first downs. His DYAR by quarter: -11, 1, 81, 93.

5.

Andy Dalton DAL

22/30

377

3

1

2

129

131

-1

PHI

Dalton’s average pass came with a league-low 7.1 yards to go for a first down, and his average completion gained a league-high 10.2 yards after the catch. You can see how that math would work out in Dallas’ favor. He was the league’s best passer on third/fourth downs (6-of-9 for 95 yards with one sack and four conversions, including a touchdown; a 10th throw resulted in a 34-yard DPI).

6.

Kirk Cousins MIN

27/41

291

3

0

2

115

115

0

NO

Cousins gains 47 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He was the week’s best passer on throws to tight ends (10-of-15 for 84 yards and two touchdowns) and in the red zone (4-of-7 for 21 yards and three touchdowns, plus a 17-yard DPI).

7.

Aaron Rodgers GB

21/25

231

4

1

1

105

110

-5

TEN

Rodgers was the best quarterback on plays from under center (9-of-10 for 108 yards and four, count ’em, four touchdowns).

8.

Derek Carr LV

21/33

336

1

0

3

103

99

4

MIA

Carr was the league’s best passer in the no-huddle (3-of-4 for 50 yards, plus a 49-yard DPI).

9.

Ryan Fitzpatrick MIA

9/13

182

1

0

0

93

93

0

LV

Fitzpatrick came into this game with Miami down 16-13 in the fourth quarter and proceeded to lead the league in fourth-quarter DYAR. He produced five first downs in 10 minutes; Tua Tagovailoa, Miami’s starter, only had four in 50.

10.

Matt Ryan ATL

27/35

300

2

0

4

91

91

0

KC

Ryan was the league’s best passer on throws to his right. Fifteen times he threw the ball in that direction; 14 of those balls were caught for a combined 157 yards, and the other picked up 11 yards on a DPI.

11.

Deshaun Watson HOU

24/33

324

3

0

1

88

94

-6

CIN

Watson was the week’s worst passer without a huddle. He had three plays in that situation, all on first-and-10: an incompletion, a completion for no gain (which his receiver then fumbled for good measure), and a sack-fumble.

12.

Drew Brees NO

19/26

311

0

2

0

67

67

0

MIN

Surprisingly, Brees had the league’s worst numbers on passes to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage (2-of-4 for 11 yards with an interception).

Rk

Player

Team

CP/AT

Yds

TD

INT

Sacks

Total
DYAR

Pass
DYAR

Rush
DYAR

Opp

13.

Lamar Jackson BAL

17/25

183

2

0

0

66

67

-1

NYG

Jackson threw one touchdown in the first quarter and one in the fourth, but in between those two plays he went pretty cold, going 10-of-18 for 100 yards. He also ran 12 times for 80 yards, but he had negative DYAR because only four of those runs picked up first downs and he lost a fumble at the goal line.

14.

Mitchell Trubisky CHI

24/35

265

2

1

1

63

54

9

JAX

Trubisky threw 10 balls that traveled more than 11 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. One was completed for 22 yards, two picked up DPIs for 34 more yards, one was intercepted, and the rest were incomplete.

15.

C.J. Beathard SF

13/22

182

3

0

3

56

52

4

ARI

Beathard was the week’s best passer on throws to running backs (7-of-10 for 59 yards and three touchdowns).

16.

Russell Wilson SEA

20/31

225

1

0

5

54

38

16

LAR

Wilson gains 41 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He ran twice for 10 yards and a touchdown. His first 16 dropbacks produced exactly one first down. Up to that point he had gone 8-of-14 for 60 yards with two sacks.

17.

Justin Herbert LAC

21/33

253

1

0

2

43

36

7

DEN

Herbert only converted three third-down plays, going 5-of-11 for 80 yards with one touchdown and one sack.

18.

Taylor Heinicke WAS

12/19

137

1

0

1

41

32

8

CAR

Heinicke came into this game with Washington trailing 20-6 in the fourth quarter. His average pass traveled a league-high 13.4 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Eight of his 19 passes counted as deep balls, traveling more than 15 yards downfield. Only seven passers threw more deep balls this week. Only two of Heinicke’s deep balls were completed, however, for a total of 48 yards.

19.

Blaine Gabbert TB

9/15

143

2

0

1

26

20

6

DET

Gabbert entered the game with Tampa Bay up 40-0 in the second quarter and proceeded to throw two touchdowns in his first six passes. It was just the 10th time that Gabbert, the 10th overall draft pick in 2011, has thrown for multiple touchdowns in a single game, and the first since Week 12 of 2017, when Gabbert’s Arizona Cardinals beat his original team, the Jacksonville Jaguars, 27-24.

20.

Philip Rivers IND

22/35

270

1

1

5

24

24

0

PIT

Rivers gains a league-high 70 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. His DYAR by quarter: -7, 69, -4, -40. His second quarter started with a sack-fumble, but after that he went 6-of-7 for 106 yards and a touchdown. He had seven dropbacks with 5 yards or less to go for a first down and failed to convert any of them, completing two passes that gained zero yards each, throwing two incompletions, and taking three sacks.

21.

Patrick Mahomes KC

24/44

278

2

1

0

13

3

10

ATL

No, this was not the worst game of Patrick Mahomes’ career — it was the second-worst game of his career. Mahomes has had negative DYAR exactly one time, but nobody noticed because A) it was in Week 17 of last season and nobody pays attention to Week 17, and B) Kansas City won anyway, beating the Chargers 31-21 thanks largely to a 104-yard kickoff return for a touchdown by Mecole Hardman and an 84-yard touchdown run by Damien Williams. So yes, Mahomes has had a bad game in his career. He has also finished first in Quick Reads eight times (and second six times) in the last three years.

22.

Sam Darnold NYJ

16/32

175

2

0

2

-17

-17

0

CLE

No quarterback this season has a worse DYAR than Sam Darnold in the second half of games, and he was terrible at the end of this one too. He picked up just one first down in his last 14 dropbacks, going 5-of-14 for 23 yards and turning a comfortable 20-3 lead into a nailbiting 20-16 win.

Rk

Player

Team

CP/AT

Yds

TD

INT

Sacks

Total
DYAR

Pass
DYAR

Rush
DYAR

Opp

23.

Daniel Jones NYG

24/41

252

1

0

6

-20

-17

-3

BAL

Jones had a very streaky game. He had four separate stretches where he picked up first downs on at least three straight dropbacks. He also had stretches with one first down in five dropbacks, zero in seven, and finally zero in 12. In that last bit, going from the third quarter to the fourth, he went 5-of-8 for 19 yards, plus four sacks that lost a combined 20 yards.

24.

Jarrett Stidham NE

4/11

44

0

0

1

-20

-20

0

BUF

25.

Cam Newton NE

5/10

34

0

0

2

-29

-44

15

BUF

26.

Teddy Bridgewater CAR

19/28

197

1

1

4

-32

-26

-6

WAS

Bridgewater gains 45 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He did not play well in Football Team territory, going 6-of-9 for 40 yards with more sacks (three) or turnovers (two, an interception and a fumble) than touchdowns (one).

27.

Drew Lock DEN

25/46

264

0

2

2

-35

-42

7

LAC

Lock was the week’s worst passer on deep balls (3-of-14 for 62 yards with two interceptions, though one was a Hail Mary) and on throws to his left (8-of-16 for 50 yards with an interception).

28.

Chase Daniel DET

13/18

86

0

0

3

-43

-43

0

TB

Daniel came into this game with Detroit down 13-0 in the first quarter and left it with a 47-7 deficit in the fourth. In between, he threw for all of three first downs. He did not have a single dropback in Tampa Bay territory. He did get to the 50-yard line once, but promptly threw an incompletion and then gave up a sack.

29.

David Blough DET

6/10

49

0

1

1

-51

-60

9

TB

Daniel Blough came into this game with Detroit down 13-0 47-7 in the first fourth quarter. And then things got worse — his average pass came with a league-high 12.3 yards to go for a first down. Unlike Daniel, he did get the Lions into Buccaneers territory … where he went 2-for-5 for 16 yards with more sacks (one) than first downs (zero).

30.

Mike Glennon JAX

25/37

211

2

2

1

-56

-56

0

CHI

Glennon’s average completion gained a league-low 2.9 yards after the catch. On a related note, he was the week’s worst passer on throws to running backs (5-of-7 for 13 yards with an interception).

31.

Kyler Murray ARI

31/49

247

0

1

3

-60

-92

32

SF

Murray’s rushing numbers: eight carries for 75 yards. He ran for four first downs, including conversions on all three of his fourth-down attempts. However, he threw a dozen failed completions, most in the league. He was also the league’s worst passer on throws to wide receivers, completing 23 of 33 passes for 202 yards (which sounds OK, but 99 of those yards came on three plays) with an interception.

32.

Tua Tagovailoa MIA

17/22

94

1

0

3

-74

-75

1

LV

This was the third time in eight NFL starts that Tagovailoa has finished with at least 20 pass attempts but fewer than 100 passing yards. Only two other quarterbacks in the NFL this season have even done it once: Lamar Jackson on Monday night against Kansas City in Week 3 and Mike Glennon against Tennessee in Week 13. Nobody has had three such games in a year since 2000, when Cincinnati’s Akili Smith had four — that’s tied with Oakland’s Tom Flores in 1960 for the single-season record. One reason Tagovailoa’s yardage total was so low against Las Vegas is that his average pass traveled a league-low 4.0 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. He did throw a game-tying touchdown pass in the third quarter, but after that he went 1-of-3 for 1 yard with three sacks, leading to his benching.

33.

Jared Goff LAR

24/43

234

0

1

3

-88

-74

-14

SEA

Goff tied a career high with seven runs but only gained 23 yards on those carries. None of those runs picked up first downs, including a stuff on third-and-goal from the 1. He was the league’s worst quarterback on plays from under center (4-of-9 for 34 yards with an interception). He had 11 dropbacks at or within the Seattle 33-yard line, going 2-of-10 for 17 yards with a sack and an interception.

34.

Ryan Tannehill TEN

11/24

121

1

2

2

-90

-108

18

GB

Tannehill’s rushing numbers: three carries for 55 yards and a touchdown. He was, by a country mile, the worst passer on throws to his right (2-of-9 for 20 yards with two interceptions), and on plays with a huddle (which was most of his plays — in the no-huddle he went 4-of-6 for 51 yards and a touchdown).

35.

Jalen Hurts PHI

21/39

342

1

2

3

-93

-79

-14

DAL

Hurst loses 40 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He ran nine times for 69 yards, with a fumble. Hurts was the league’s worst passer on third/fourth downs (5-of-12 for 73 yards with three conversions and two interceptions) and inside the opponents’ 40 (4-of-11 for 29 yards, no touchdowns, three sacks, one interception, one fumble). However, he was the best passer inside his own 40 (10-of-13 for 220 yards and a touchdown, plus a 43-yard DPI). Hurts now has nine fumbles in 284 snaps this season. For comparison’s sake, Derek Carr leads the league with 11 fumbles, but he has played 937 snaps.

36.

Baker Mayfield CLE

28/51

285

0

0

4

-99

-100

1

NYJ

Mayfield failed to throw for a touchdown despite getting 20 dropbacks inside the Jets’ 40-yard line, where he went 7-of-18 for 63 yards with an 11-yard DPI and a sack. He did run for first downs on two third-and-1 plays in the red zone, but the game basically ended when he was stuffed on fourth-and-1 (with a fumble) in the red zone in the final minutes.

37.

Dwayne Haskins WAS

14/28

154

0

2

2

-132

-132

0

CAR

Welp. Far be it from us to kick a man when he’s down.

 

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)

Rk

Player

Team

Runs

Rush
Yds

Rush
TD

Rec

Rec
Yds

Rec
TD

Total
DYAR

Rush
DYAR

Rec
DYAR

Opp

1.

Alvin Kamara NO

22

155

6

3/5

17

0

83

88

-5

MIN

I did not watch the Vikings-Saints game on Christmas night, but when I saw that Kamara had run for 155 yards and a half-dozen touchdowns, and that the Saints had tied the NFL’s all-time record with 21 rushing first downs, I assumed this would be the best running back game of the year, and one of the best of all time. Well, wrong on both counts. First, Kamara’s day as a receiver was nothing special. Second, there’s the manner of opponent adjustments — without them, Kamara had 110 rushing YAR, which would be the best game of the year, 20 more than anyone else. And third, Kamara’s teammates (12 first downs in 20 carries) actually moved the chains more efficiently than he did (nine in 22). Kamara’s game was very good, but the Saints as a team were even better. They gained a first down on half their carries (including six in a row to open the game), and every one of those 42 runs gained at least 1 yard. For comparison’s sake, the Saints’ division rivals, the Atlanta Falcons, have rushed for 22 first downs in six games since their Week 10 bye, being stuffed 20 times over that time.

2.

Jeff Wilson SF

22

183

0

1/2

21

1

63

44

18

ARI

The Cardinals managed to stuff Wilson three times, but he still ran for eight first downs. Seven of those plays gained double-digit yardage, including gains of 23, 25, and 34 yards.

3.

Ezekiel Elliott DAL

19

105

0

4/4

34

0

58

37

21

PHI

Elliott gains 23 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He only ran for four first downs, but he was stuffed just once, with gains of 14 and 31 yards. Only one of his catches produced a first down, but three were successful plays, and the other was a 4-yard gain on first-and-10.

4.

AJ Dillon GB

21

124

2

1/1

5

0

55

52

3

TEN

The Titans stuffed Dillon three times — all of them with Green Bay up by at least 12 points in the second half. He still ran for seven first downs, including gains of 14 and 30 yards.

5.

Gus Edwards BAL

15

85

0

2/2

37

0

54

33

22

NYG

Though Edwards was stuffed twice, he still ran for seven first downs in only 15 carries, the longest a gain of 32. All three of his catches produced first downs too, including a 27-yard gain on second-and-17.

 

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)

Rk

Player

Team

Runs

Rush
Yds

Rush
TD

Rec

Rec
Yds

Rec
TD

Total
DYAR

Rush
DYAR

Rec
DYAR

Opp

1.

Alvin Kamara NO

22

155

6

3/5

17

0

83

88

-5

MIN

2.

AJ Dillon GB

21

124

2

1/1

5

0

55

52

3

TEN

3.

Jeff Wilson SF

22

183

0

1/2

21

1

63

44

18

ARI

4.

Jonathan Taylor IND

18

74

2

0/1

0

0

39

44

-5

PIT

Taylor gains 18 total DYAR due to opponent adjustments. The Steelers stuffed him twice, but he also ran for a half-dozen first downs, including gains of 11 and 18 yards.

5.

J.K. Dobbins BAL

11

77

1

0/1

0

0

27

43

-16

NYG

Dobbins was stuffed once against the Giants. His other 10 runs all gained at least 2 yards, and even the 2-yarder was a touchdown. He only had two other first downs, but they came on gains of 17 and 25 yards.

 

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)

Rk

Player

Team

Runs

Rush
Yds

Rush
TD

Rec

Rec
Yds

Rec
TD

Total
DYAR

Rush
DYAR

Rec
DYAR

Opp

1.

Salvon Ahmed MIA

6

2

0

1/1

1

0

-38

-33

-5

LV

Remember when I said the Saints gave up zero stuffs in 42 runs? Ahmed was stuffed four times in six carries against the Raiders, including failures to convert on third-and-1 and third-and-2. None of his carries gained a first down; his only successful carry was a 3-yard gain on second-and-4. His only catch was a 1-yard gain on second-and-10. Oh, did we mention he did this against THE RAIDERS??? The team that was next to last in run defense DVOA coming into the week? So Ahmed lost 14 rushing DYAR due to opponent adjustments in only six carries.

 

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)

Rk

Player

Team

Runs

Rush
Yds

Rush
TD

Rec

Rec
Yds

Rec
TD

Total
DYAR

Rush
DYAR

Rec
DYAR

Opp

1.

Salvon Ahmed MIA

6

2

0

1/1

1

0

-38

-33

-5

LV

 

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR

Rk

Player

Team

Rec

Att

Yds

Avg

TD

Total
DYAR

Opp

1.

Davante Adams GB

11

12

142

12.9

3

98

TEN

Nine of Adams’ catches produced first downs; the others were 6- and 8-yard gains on first-and-10. All three of his touchdowns came from within the Tennessee 8-yard line, but he also had three catches of 20 yards or more, the longest a 32-yarder on third-and-10.

2.

Nelson Agholor LV

5

6

155

31.0

1

80

MIA

All of Agholor’s catches produced first downs, including an 85-yard touchdown on first-and-20. He added a sixth first down on a 49-yard DPI.

3.

Mike Evans TB

10

12

181

18.1

2

79

DET

Evans loses 16 DAR due to opponent adjustments. Seven of his catches gained at least 15 yards and a first down, the longest a gain of 33, and he also had a 35-yard DPI. Oh, and six of his 13 total targets (including the DPI) were thrown by Blaine Gabbert instead of Tom Brady, which must be one of the biggest drop-offs in in-game quarterback talent we have ever seen.

4.

Stefon Diggs BUF

9

11

145

16.1

3

69

NE

Eight of Diggs’ catches produced first downs, the longest a 50-yard touchdown.

5.

Michael Gallup DAL

6

8

121

20.2

2

63

PHI

All six of Gallup’s catches produced first downs, the longest a gain of 55. He added a seventh first down on a 26-yard DPI.

 

Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR

Rk

Player

Team

Rec

Att

Yds

Avg

TD

Total
DYAR

Opp

1.

Jerry Jeudy DEN

6

15

61

10.2

0

-50

LAC

Only three of Jeudy’s catches moved the chains. One was a 10-yard gain on third-and-13, one of his four failures to convert on third down.


https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2020/week-16-quick-reads