Week 5 Quick Reads | Football Outsiders

by Vincent Verhei

I want you to chase me
Keep me awake at night
Make it hard to sleep

Those are the lyrics sung by country duo Alexa and Natalee Falk from their 2012 single “Chase Me,” telling an eligible bachelor that while a young lady was interested in him, she was going to play hard to get. It’s not much of a stretch, though, to apply those bars to the Falks’ brother, Luke, and his performance against the Philadelphia Eagles this weekend. Whether he wanted them to or not, the Eagles certainly did chase him. And based on the beating he took, they may well have kept him awake at night and made it hard to sleep.

Luke Falk may not have the stage experience of his sisters, but he knows what it’s like to perform in front of crowds. He set Utah state records for pass attempts in high school, and in three-plus seasons as a starter at Washington State he set Pac-12 records for attempts, completions, yards, and touchdowns.

All those gaudy numbers did little to excite NFL scouts, however. He was drafted in the sixth round in 2018 by Tennessee, but failed to make the Titans’ final roster. The Dolphins signed him to their practice squad, but his season ended that October due to a wrist injury. He spent this summer in camp with the Jets, who waived him and signed him to their practice squad, then promoted him to the active roster when Sam Darnold was diagnosed with mononucleoisis.

A few days later Falk found himself playing most of the game against the Browns on Monday Night Football after Darnold’s backup Trevor Siemian suffered a first-quarter ankle injury. And for a third-stringer playing with such little preparation, he looked fine — he avoided throwing an interception while completing 80% of his passes, even if most of them didn’t end up going very far. Things were much rougher in Week 3 against New England — Falk threw for fewer than 100 yards while giving up an interception and being sacked five times — but then New England’s defense has been historically great this season, making everyone look bad. With a bye in Week 4, Falk would basically have two weeks to prepare for the Eagles in Week 5, and surely he and the Jets would put that practice time to good use, right?

Well. Funny story…

Despite the fact that Darnold had not been cleared by doctors, and despite an initial diagnosis that he might not be cleared until Halloween, and despite the quarterback’s realistic worries about literal death if he was forced back into action too early, word broke Sunday morning that Jets coach Adam Gase had been giving Darnold first-team reps in practice, relegating Falk to scout team duty until last Friday. This meant that Falk would be making his first two NFL starts against the winners of the last two Super Bowls without a full week of practice for either one of them (the Patriots game, you’ll recall, was played on a short week after Falk’s debut on Monday night).

The results were predictably poor. Falk completed 15 of 26 passes against the Eagles for only 120 yards and no touchdowns. This was not against the mighty Patriots; the Eagles had already given up 380 yards and three touchdowns to Case Keenum, 320 yards and three touchdowns to Matt Ryan, 422 yards and two touchdowns to Aaron Rodgers this season. It’s the negative plays that really made the difference though. “Always follow when I run,” the Falk sisters sang, and boy howdy did the Eagles follow the Jets quarterback when he ran. Falk’s first dropback against Philadelphia resulted in a sack, and his last dropback against Philadelphia resulted in a sack. In between, he was sacked seven more times. Falk gave up more sacks in four quarters than Tom Brady, Jacoby Brissett, Derek Carr, Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, or Carson Wentz have given up in five starts apiece in 2019. Falk made a bad situation worse with an inability to hang onto the football, fumbling twice and throwing a pair of interceptions.

It really was an historic performance for Falk. According to Pro Football Reference, this is just the second time in league history that a quarterback has given up nine sacks, two fumbles, and two interceptions in a single game. The other was Cam Newton in a 2014 game against … the Philadelphia Eagles, of all teams. Newton was at least able to shake off his early struggles that day and redeem himself somewhat with a pair of garbage-time touchdown throws. Falk was actually at his worst at the end of the game against Philadelphia — he was somehow sacked on each of his last four dropbacks.

The play-by-play shows some even uglier splits. When the Jets even approached the 50-yard line, Falk was nearly useless. From his own 45-yard line to the Philadelphia end zone, he went 3-of-10 for 17 yards with three sacks, an interception, and a fumble. Two of those plays resulted in touchdowns — for the Eagles. On third and fourth downs, he went 3-of-8 for 34 yards with an interception and four sacks. Only two of those completions picked up first downs, and they both came with the Jets down by 18 points in the fourth quarter. Falk didn’t even throw a pass to the middle of the field — that part of the playbook must have been covered when Darnold was practicing.

Was this the worst game of the week? Yes. Was it the worst game of the year? Also yes. In fact, it was one of the worst games we have ever measured. Exactly where it falls on the all-time table is yet to be determined; opponent adjustments and league baselines will fluctuate throughout the season. If the Eagles defense plays like gangbusters over the next three months, Falk’s DYAR numbers will improve; if the Eagles fall apart (and with five defensive backs on the injury list this week, that is certainly possible), this could be the new Worst Game of the DVOA Era. Going into Monday Night Football this week, it ranks as the fourth-worst game on record, and the worst game since Ryan Fitzpatrick threw a half-dozen interceptions in 2016 while playing for … the New York Jets.

Worst Quarterback Games, Total DYAR, 1989-2019
Player	Team	Year	Wk	CP/AT	Yds	TD	Int	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
David Klingler	CIN	1994	4	10/30	115	0	3	7	-302	-302	0	HOIL
Ryan Fitzpatrick	NYJ	2016	3	20/44	188	0	6	0	-300	-291	-9	KC
Rex Grossman	CHI	2006	6	14/37	144	0	4	2	-284	-284	0	ARI
Luke Falk	NYJ	2019	5	15/26	120	0	2	9	-278	-278	0	PHI
Brandon Weeden	CLE	2012	1	12/35	118	0	4	2	-274	-284	10	PHI
Alex Smith	SF	2005	5	9/23	74	0	4	5	-270	-263	-7	IND
Tim Hasselbeck	WAS	2003	15	6/26	56	0	4	1	-270	-268	-2	DAL
Troy Aikman	DAL	1990	6	9/25	61	0	2	4	-269	-259	-11	PHX
Donald Hollas	OAK	1998	14	12/31	152	1	6	8	-266	-273	7	MIA
Brian Griese	DEN	2001	17	16/32	151	1	4	5	-265	-272	7	IND
Kordell Stewart	CHI	2003	1	14/34	95	1	3	5	-263	-256	-7	SF
Craig Erickson	TB	1993	6	13/29	122	0	4	3	-259	-257	-3	MIN
Ryan Leaf	SD	1998	3	1/15	4	0	2	2	-259	-256	-3	KC
Vinny Testaverde	TB	1989	13	19/39	188	0	5	4	-256	-256	0	GB
Bobby Hoying	PHI	1998	11	16/34	118	0	2	5	-255	-248	-7	WAS
Kelly Stouffer	SEA	1992	13	12/21	109	0	2	5	-254	-254	0	DEN
Vinny Testaverde	TB	1990	9	10/24	149	1	5	3	-250	-260	11	CHI
Teddy Bridgewater	MIN	2014	6	23/37	188	0	3	8	-250	-257	7	DET
David Carr	HOU	2002	2	6/25	87	0	2	9	-247	-258	11	SD
Drew Bledsoe	NE	1999	11	16/34	201	1	5	4	-247	-247	0	MIA
DYAR totals accurate going into Monday Night Football in Week 5; they will change as opponent adjustments fluctuate throughout the year.

Quarterbacks
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
1.	Deshaun Watson	HOU	28/33	426	5	0	0	279	278	1	ATL
The Texans eventually won this game by 21 points, but for most of the time it was much closer than that — none of Watson’s passes came with a lead of more than nine points. Watson was at his best late in the game — on Houston’s last three drives, he went 11-of-12 for 184 yards and three touchdowns. On third downs, he went 9-of-10 for 187 yards and seven conversions, including two touchdowns.
2.	Russell Wilson	SEA	17/23	268	4	0	1	192	187	5	LAR
Wilson was a monster in Rams territory, going 7-of-9 for 108 yards and four touchdowns on L.A.’s side of the 50. He completed five of six deep passes for 150 yards and a touchdown.
3.	Teddy Bridgewater	NO	26/34	314	4	1	0	140	141	-1	TB
Bridgewater’s another passer who delivered once crossing the 50, going 11-of-12 for 128 yards and four touchdowns.
4.	Gardner Minshew	JAX	26/44	374	2	0	2	120	107	13	CAR
Minshew would have ranked even higher, but he had three fumbles — two on sacks, one on an aborted snap. He had great success on passes to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage: 7-of-11 for 56 yards and an NFL-high five first downs this week.
5.	Kirk Cousins	MIN	22/27	306	2	0	3	100	100	0	NYG
Cousins’ best success came on throws that traveled 9 to 24 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. He completed all seven of his passes to that area for a total of 146 yards. All seven of those completions picked up first downs, including a pair of scores.
6.	Derek Carr	OAK	25/32	229	0	0	0	89	85	4	CHI
Carr’s first throw over the middle was complete for a 21-yard gain. He didn’t pick up another first down on a throw down the middle the rest of the game, going 3-of-8 for 19 yards.
7.	Matt Ryan	ATL	32/46	330	3	1	2	81	72	10	HOU
Sometimes completion percentage can be overrated. Ryan went completed all 11 of his passes to his running backs, but for a total of just 85 yards and only two first downs (though one of those was a touchdown).
8.	Dak Prescott	DAL	27/44	462	2	3	3	80	78	2	GB
On five third-down dropbacks, Prescott had three incompletions and two sacks. Not ideal.
9.	Jared Goff	LAR	29/49	395	1	1	0	79	84	-5	SEA
Goff was erratic but explosive on throws down the middle. He only completed seven of his 13 passes to that area of the field, but each of those seven completions was good for a first down, including a touchdown, and they produced a total of 137 yards.
10.	Kyler Murray	ARI	20/31	253	0	0	1	77	45	32	CIN
Murray had a lot of short passes that didn’t go anywhere, but when he did throw downfield he was very effective. On throws that traveled at least 10 yards downfield, he went 8-of-11 for 176 yards.
11.	Andy Dalton	CIN	27/38	262	2	0	1	69	82	-13	ARI
Dalton, frankly, was horrible in this game until the end. Once the Bengals fell behind by 14 points, he caught fire, finishing 10-of-11 for 144 yards. Both of his touchdowns came in the final five minutes of the game.
12.	Carson Wentz	PHI	17/29	189	1	0	1	45	52	-6	NYJ
Wentz had one heck of a cold streak in the first half. On a dozen consecutive dropbacks, he went 4-of-11 for 27 yards with no first downs and a sack. That includes incomplete passes on third- and fourth-and-5 in Jets territory.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
13.	Devlin Hodges	PIT	7/9	68	0	0	0	43	34	9	BAL
It’s harder to excuse Luke Falk’s performance as that of a third-stringer with little preparation when Hodges — also a third-stringer with little preparation — plays this efficiently, even in a tiny sample size. Hodges was successful on six of his ten throws this week, including a DPI that gained 7 yards. Among qualifying passers this week, only Deshaun Watson had a higher success rate. Falk was successful on eight of 35 throws, for the worst success rate of the week.
14.	Tom Brady	NE	28/42	348	3	1	4	43	43	0	WAS
Most of Brady’s struggles came on third downs, where he went 7-of-9 for 74 yards, but only four conversions (including a touchdown). He also threw an interception and was sacked twice on third downs.
15.	Aaron Rodgers	GB	22/34	237	0	0	2	40	41	-1	DAL
Rodgers only had three first downs on throws to his wide receivers, going 4-of-12 for 55 yards, plus a 39-yard DPI.
16.	Jimmy Garoppolo	SF	20/29	181	2	0	2	40	55	-16	CLE
17.	Patrick Mahomes	KC	22/39	321	1	0	4	28	25	4	IND
Mahomes was uncharasterically ineffective in the red zone, where he went 1-of-5 for 4 yards with two sacks and no first downs.
18.	Jacoby Brissett	IND	18/29	151	0	1	0	15	7	8	KC
Third-down passing: 2-of-8 for 16 yards and only one conversion. He had only one first down in the second half, when he went 6-of-10 for 35 yards.
19.	Kyle Allen	CAR	17/30	181	1	0	3	13	14	-1	JAX
With about six minutes left in the second quarter, something amazing happened … or rather, didn’t happen. It was the first time this season that Allen was sacked without fumbling. He took two more sacks in the game, fumbling once. Allen now has a league-high six fumbles on sacks this season. In second place: his counterpart in this game, Gardner Minshew, who has five.
20.	Josh Allen	BUF	23/32	219	2	1	4	3	0	3	TEN
Allen really struggled when throwing to his right, going 7-of-15 for 48 yards and only two first downs.
21.	Marcus Mariota	TEN	13/22	183	0	0	5	-1	2	-3	BUF
Third-down passing: 3-of-8 for 31 yards with more sacks (three) than conversions (two).
22.	Mason Rudolph	PIT	13/20	131	1	0	1	-4	-4	0	BAL
Only four of Rudolph’s completions gained 10 or more yards. Those four plays produced 53 yards through the air, 40 yards after the catch.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
23.	Jameis Winston	TB	15/27	204	2	0	6	-33	-30	-3	NO
Winston was great on throws over the middle, going 5-of-6 for 76 yards, with every completion picking up a first down.
24.	Chase Daniel	CHI	22/30	231	2	2	4	-43	-42	-1	OAK
The good thing about Daniel’s day on deep balls is that he went 5-of-6 for 116 yards and a touchdown. The bad thing is that the sixth pass was intercepted.
25.	Daniel Jones	NYG	21/38	182	1	1	4	-73	-84	11	MIN
Jones threw a bunch of passes to his backs and tight ends. It didn’t work — he went 9-of-15 for 58 yards with only two first downs.
26.	Joe Flacco	DEN	14/20	182	1	1	3	-76	-75	-2	LAC
Flacco only threw for one first down in the second half, when he went 6-of-9 for 40 yards with an interception and two sacks.
27.	Philip Rivers	LAC	33/47	211	0	2	0	-98	-87	-11	DEN
Rivers averaged only 6.6 yards per completion. Only once in NFL history has a quarterback had more completions in a game with such a poor average: In 2001, Carolina’s Chris Weinke averaged 6.2 yards on 36 completions in a 30-7 loss to Arizona.
28.	Lamar Jackson	BAL	19/28	161	1	3	5	-102	-117	14	PIT
Jackson had a stretch in the middle of this game where he apparently just forgot how to play football. In seven dropbacks over the second and third quarters, he had one completion, a 7-yard gain on third-and-13; three interceptions; and three sacks.
29.	Colt McCoy	WAS	18/27	119	0	1	6	-120	-129	9	NE
I’ve been writing for Football Outsiders since 2007, and I don’t remember ever seeing this split before: McCoy played the entire game for Washington, and he didn’t have a single dropback in the opponents’ territory. He had one pass at the 50; it was incomplete. On third downs, he went 3-of-7 for 12 yards with one conversion, three sacks, and a fumble. He only threw for five first downs in this game. That’s as many as Devlin Hodges produced in 10 dropbacks against Baltimore.
30.	Baker Mayfield	CLE	9/22	100	0	2	4	-185	-185	0	SF
31.	Luke Falk	NYJ	15/26	120	0	2	9	-270	-270	0	PHI
.@NathanGerry grabs a pick six to extend our lead!#NYJvsPHI \| #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/MnyUIlDQBF — Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) October 6, 2019 That defense is eating today.#NYJvsPHI \| #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/MA04Ki2A87 — Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) October 6, 2019 Everybody eats ??#NYJvsPHI \| #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/yY0HTCkh8a — Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) October 6, 2019

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Aaron Jones	GB	19	107	4	7/8	75	0	80	51	29	DAL
You’ve probably heard by now that Jones ran for four touchdowns against Dallas, but he had six other first downs too, six of them on gains of 10 yards or more. That more than offset the four times he was stuffed for no gain or a loss (including a 10-yard loss on first-and-10, which, wow). He had three more first downs as a receiver, the longest a gain of 22 yards.
2.	Christian McCaffrey	CAR	19	176	2	6/9	61	1	52	22	30	JAX
McCaffrey loses 28 DYAR due to opponent adjustments. He was stuffed three times, once on fourth-and-1, but he ran for six first downs, the longest an 84-yarder. He had five more first downs as a receiver.
3.	Josh Jacobs	OAK	26	123	2	3/4	20	0	52	48	4	CHI
Jacobs was stuffed just one time by the Bears while running for eight first downs, including gains of 12, 15, and 21 yards. He had one first down as a receiver, a 10-yard gain on second-and-8.
4.	Sony Michel	NE	16	91	1	3/3	32	0	50	31	19	WAS
Michel had four first downs against Washington, each of which gained at least 11 yards and came in a five-carry stretch in the second half. He was also stuffed four times. Two of his catches also gained at least 11 yards and a first down.
5.	Chris Carson	SEA	27	118	0	1/2	5	1	46	34	12	LAR
Carson had 12 carries with 8 yards or less to go and ran for a first down on eight of them. He was stuffed for a loss four times. His one reception was a go-ahead fourth-quarter touchdown on fourth-and-goal.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Aaron Jones	GB	19	107	4	7/8	75	0	80	51	29	DAL
2.	Josh Jacobs	OAK	26	123	2	3/4	20	0	52	48	4	CHI
3.	Chris Carson	SEA	27	118	0	1/2	5	1	46	34	12	LAR
4.	Sony Michel	NE	16	91	1	3/3	32	0	50	31	19	WAS
5.	Phillip Lindsay	DEN	15	114	1	4/4	33	0	38	26	12	LAC
Five of Lindsay’s carries gained 12 yards or more, the longest a 32-yarder, and he also had a 4-yard touchdown run. He was stuffed three times.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Melvin Gordon	LAC	12	31	0	4/6	7	0	-41	-22	-20	DEN
Welcome back to football Melvin! Here are six targets in the passing game, which you will turn into two receptions: 2- and 5-yard gains, both on first-and-10.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Melvin Gordon	LAC	12	31	0	4/6	7	0	-41	-22	-20	DEN
Welcome back to football Melvin! Here are 12 carries in the running game, none of which will gain a first down or more than 7 yards, while three will go for no gain.

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR	Opp
1.	Michael Thomas	NO	11	13	182	16.5	2	88	TB
Nine of Thomas’ 11 catches produced first downs. He had four third-down conversions, two touchdowns, and gains of 34 and 42 yards.
2.	Amari Cooper	DAL	11	14	226	20.5	1	87	GB
Cooper had seven first downs; five of them gained 20-plus yards, including a 46-yard gain on second-and-15 and a 53-yard touchdown.
3.	DJ Chark	JAX	8	11	164	20.5	2	84	CAR
Each of Chark’s catches gained at least 10 yards and a first down. Three of them gained 30 yards or more, the longest a 37-yard touchdown in the first quarter.
4.	Chris Godwin	TB	7	9	125	17.9	2	71	NO
Each of Godwin’s catches gained at least 10 yards and a first down. Three gained exactly 26 yards apiece; two of those came with 16 yards or more to go.
5.	Adam Thielen	MIN	7	8	130	18.6	2	68	NYG
Each of Thielen’s catches gained at least 9 yards and a first down. His longest catches were gains of 28 and 44 yards.

Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR	Opp
1.	Diontae Johnson	PIT	4	7	27	6.8	0	-47	BAL
Only one of Johnson’s catches was a successful play, a 7-yard gain on first-and-10. He also had a 13-yard gain on third-and-8, but he fumbled at the end of the play. Pittsburgh recovered the ball and got a first down, but it still torpedoed Johnson’s DYAR.